FORECASTING CRITICAL AIRCRAFT LAUNCH AND RECOVERY EQUIPMENT (ALRE) COMPONENTS' DEMAND
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Authors
Coleman, Dustin T.
Grimes, Jacob M.
Laryea, Macdonald
Subjects
CVN Aircraft Launch and Recovery Equipment (ALRE)
interim supply support (ISS)
demand forecasting
NAVAIR
NAVSEA
NAVSUP
interim supply support (ISS)
demand forecasting
NAVAIR
NAVSEA
NAVSUP
Advisors
Ferrer, Geraldo
Dahel, Eddine
Date of Issue
2018-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Demand signals across the Navy’s NIMITZ Class Carrier (CVN) Aircraft Launch and Recovery Equipment (ALRE) market-basket are highly erratic and do not fit neatly into the traditional demand-based sparing construct. This causes the Naval Supply Systems Command Weapons Systems Support (NAVSUP WSS) planning efforts to continually lag behind requirements, with material often arriving late-to-need. This project attempts to develop a comprehensive and more reliable ALRE material requirement forecast model. To accomplish this effectively, a comprehensive list of historical CVN ALRE demand data were analyzed in order to identify any correlation between ALRE demand and a ship’s operating phase status, and to identify whether that correlation directly drives ALRE demand. The analysis begins by collecting historical CVN ALRE demand data and identifying the improvements for the current forecasting model. After a complete analysis of the current forecasting model, we utilized multiple linear regression and evaluated various forecasting methods as the best available methods for developing/discovering an optimized and robust forecasting method. In conclusion, the extremely low demand quantities of critical ALRE components continue to make forecasting extremely unreliable, but we believe NAVSUP can improve the accuracy of ALRE demand forecast by adapting a flexible forecasting system.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Graduate School of Business and Public Policy (GSBPP)
Graduate School of Business and Public Policy (GSBPP)
Graduate School of Business and Public Policy (GSBPP)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
NAVSUP
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.