Tactical decision making under categorical uncertainty with applications to modeling and simulation
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Authors
Kemmerer, Kacey Edward
Subjects
Advisors
Date of Issue
2008-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
The Network Centric Warfare approach to command and control emphasizes decentralized decision making. Consequently, decision makers must comprehend and evaluate information to determine the optimal course of action. This study examines how different categories of uncertainty (ambiguous/missing, conflicting, baseline) and individual differences affect response time in decision making tasks. The researchers elicited real-world tactical scenarios from veterans of Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom in which uncertainty was present. Nine scenarios were given to 28 participants at the Command General Staff College, FT Leavenworth, KS. The participants were asked to make a decision; their responses were recorded and analyzed. The results indicate that the category of uncertainty and scenario difficulty are significant factors in determining response time. No individual difference factors were found to be significant. These findings have the potential to improve human behavior modeling, tactical simulations, and representations of complex task environments.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
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NPS Report Number
Sponsors
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Format
xviii, 102 p. : ill. (col.) ;
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined
in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. As such, it is in the
public domain, and under the provisions of Title 17, United States
Code, Section 105, is not copyrighted in the U.S.