Probability models for defense against missile attacks.

Abstract

Three probability models for defense against mass missile attacks are developed. Each model corresponds to a different level of information. Different strategies are made possible by the information available. The first strategy, Invisible Kill, assigns equal times to the destruction of each missile that is selected for attention. The second, a Threshold strategy, assigns a maximum threshold time to the same task. The last, based on Perfect Task Information, engages missiles in ascending order of their destruction times; the order being assumed known in advance. The Expectation of the number of missiles killed is the Measure of Effectiveness used to evaluate the models. Numerical results are analyzed through simulation. Different strategies are compared showing the effects of information in defense effectiveness.