Publication:
PREDICTING MIDSHIPMEN'S OUTCOMES AT THE UNITED STATES NAVAL ACADEMY

dc.contributor.advisorButtrey, Samuel E.
dc.contributor.authorJamison, George R.
dc.contributor.departmentOperations Research (OR)
dc.contributor.secondreaderRuth, CAPT David M., USN
dc.date.accessioned2021-08-27T01:37:25Z
dc.date.available2021-08-27T01:37:25Z
dc.date.issued2021-06
dc.description.abstractThis research examines, describes, and analyzes factors that are associated with midshipmen’s outcomes at the United States Naval Academy. Specifically, we identify factors that help predict which midshipmen will graduate in the top 10%, bottom 10%, or undergo attrition. The goal is to identify a list of factors which company officers and senior enlisted leaders can use to help develop midshipmen morally, mentally, and physically. We used logistic regression, classification trees, and random forests to seek the most effective prediction model for midshipmen’s outcomes. The results of our logistic regression model accurately identify 71.4% of midshipman who are predicted to graduate in the top 10%, and 66.7% of midshipmen who are predicted to graduate in the bottom 10%. Additionally, whole person multiple, math SAT scores, participation in extracurricular activities, Myers-Briggs Type Indicator results, and mile times are key factors for predicting the top 10%. For the bottom 10%, the key factors are whole person multiple, math SAT scores, race/ethnicity, and prior enlistment. Due to a lack of specific attrition data, attrition models were unsuccessful. This study summarizes results, makes recommendations to the United States Naval Academy, and lists potential future work for Naval Postgraduate students.en_US
dc.description.distributionstatementApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.en_US
dc.description.serviceCaptain, United States Marine Corpsen_US
dc.identifier.curriculumcode360, Operations Analysis
dc.identifier.thesisid35241
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10945/67744
dc.publisherMonterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.rightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.en_US
dc.subject.authorUnited States Naval Academyen_US
dc.subject.authorUSNAen_US
dc.subject.authorMBTIen_US
dc.subject.authoracademic gradesen_US
dc.subject.authorphysical fitnessen_US
dc.subject.authornon-cognitiveen_US
dc.subject.authoracademic order of meriten_US
dc.subject.authorSATen_US
dc.subject.authorACTen_US
dc.subject.authorextracurricular activitiesen_US
dc.subject.authorattritionen_US
dc.subject.authorattriteen_US
dc.subject.authorlogistic regressionen_US
dc.subject.authorclassification treesen_US
dc.subject.authorrandom forestsen_US
dc.titlePREDICTING MIDSHIPMEN'S OUTCOMES AT THE UNITED STATES NAVAL ACADEMYen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dspace.entity.typePublication
etd.thesisdegree.disciplineOperations Researchen_US
etd.thesisdegree.grantorNaval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
etd.thesisdegree.levelMastersen_US
etd.thesisdegree.nameMaster of Science in Operations Researchen_US
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