An objective determination of tropical cyclone warning positions.
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Authors
Curry, William Thomas.
Subjects
Tropical Cyclones
Typhoons
Tropical cyclone forecasting
Objective warning position
Fix Position
CLIPER
Typhoons
Tropical cyclone forecasting
Objective warning position
Fix Position
CLIPER
Advisors
Elsberry, R. L.
Chan, J. C. L.
Date of Issue
1985
Date
June 1985
Publisher
Language
en_US
Abstract
A technique has been developed to determine objectively
the location of a tropical cyclone at warning time and
reduce the short-term forecast errors due to errors in the
warning position. The western North Pacific CLIPER
(CLImatology and PERsistence) forecast scheme is used to
generate a potential track, from each fix, and a smooth curve
is fit to the future and past positions. When multiple
fixes are available, weighting functions are applied to
account for fix platform accuracy and time of receipt. A
set of 836 cases from 30 storms during 1981-1983 was evaluated.
Using the objective scheme, 16 of the 30 tropical
cyclones had reduced warning position errors compared to the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center official warning position. For
11 of the 30 storms, the objective warning positions
resulted in more accurate 24-h forecasts with the CLIPER
technique than the official warning positions. This technique
appears to provide an efficient, interactive tool to
the forecaster to use in establishing the warning position.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Meteorology
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.