Publication:
FRESH PERSPECTIVE ON AN EMERGING THREAT: PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA'S GEOPOLITICAL INFLUENCE IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

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Authors
Rockwood, Andrew C.
Haviley, Christopher J.
Subjects
People's Republic of China (PRC)
Latin America
influence
UN voting
S score
regression analysis
Advisors
Warren, Timothy C.
Darnton, Christopher N.
Date of Issue
2019-12
Date
Dec-19
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
With the growing discussion on great power competition between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), few studies offer a quantitative analysis of the growing influence of the PRC across the globe. We hypothesized that the various national levers employed by the PRC would be associated with more favorable foreign policies from Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries, though not to the extent that some believe. In order to measure influence, United Nations general assembly votes (specifically votes relating to human rights issues) were utilized to assess the relationship between the voting patterns of LAC countries and the voting patterns of the PRC. Our statistical analysis finds that many factors thought to be consequential have no consistent relationship to China’s geopolitical influence. However, military arms sales were found to be positively related to agreement with China’s UN votes. In contrast, recognition of Taiwan and relative trade balance were found to have negative effects. Taken as whole, the available evidence undercuts the claim that the PRC is making significant strides, or hurting America's standing, in the LAC region.
Type
Thesis
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Department
Defense Analysis (DA)
Defense Analysis (DA)
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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