Systems Engineering in an Age of Complexity
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Authors
Calvano, Charles N.
John, Philip
Subjects
complexity
systems engineering
design
risk
failure
systems engineering
design
risk
failure
Advisors
Date of Issue
2004
Date
Publisher
Language
Abstract
This paper considers the creation of Complex Engineered Systems (CESs) and the Systems
Engineering approach by which they are designed. The changing nature of the challenges
facing Systems Engineering is discussed, with particular focus on the increasing complexity
of modern systems. It is argued that modern complexity poses a major challenge to our ability
to achieve successful systems and that this complexity must be understood, predicted and
measured if we are to engineer systems confidently. We acknowledge previous work which
concluded that, in complex systems, failures (“accidents”) may be inevitable and unavoidable.
To further explore potential tools for increasing our confidence in complex systems, we review
research in the field of Complexity Theory to seek potentially useful approaches and measures
and find ourselves particularly interested in the potential usefulness of relationships between the
magnitudes of events and their frequency of occurrence. Complexity Theory is found to have
characterized naturally occurring systems and to potentially be the source of profitable application
to the systems engineering challenge, viz., the creation of complex engineered systems. We are
left with the tentative conclusion that truly complex systems, with our present understanding of
complex behavior, cannot be designed with a degree of confidence that is acceptable given our
current expectations. We recommend that the discipline of systems engineering must investigate
this issue as a matter of priority and urgency and seek to develop approaches to respond to the
challenge.
Type
Article
Description
The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sys.10054
Series/Report No
Department
Systems Engineering
Organization
W. E. Meyer Institute of Systems Engineering
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
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Format
Citation
Systems Engineering, Vol 7., No. 1, 2004
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.