ASSAD'S AMPHETAMINE PROBLEM: THE SYRIAN REGIME, LEBANESE HEZBOLLAH, AND THE CAPTAGON TRADE

Abstract

The Syrian regime’s revenue from captagon (an illegal amphetamine) now dramatically exceeds the profits of the Mexican drug cartels. This study sought to answer two questions: 1) How is the Syrian regime producing and distributing captagon and 2) How should the United States target Syria’s captagon industry? Research consisted of a review of the production and mapping of Syria’s captagon industry and a social network analysis of the 95 identified actors within the Syrian captagon network based on open-source information. Because the captagon network is largely protected by the Syrian regime, targeting its central actors and brokers may not be an ideal option without significant escalation and eliminating any hope for future law and order in Syria. By applying criminal state theory, dark network theory, and illicit finance theory, this study determined that the United States should consider the following three options to disrupt and degrade the captagon network (from most preferred to least preferred): 1) Financial intelligence to illuminate and freeze/seize captagon funds (high feasibility/low risk), 2) Target major production infrastructure (high feasibility/medium risk), and 3) Target central actors (medium feasibility/high risk).