Publication:
JOINT ACTIVE SHOOTER PROTECTION AND RESPONSE (JASPR) SCENARIO MODELING AND ANALYSIS IN SUPPORT OF FORCE PROTECTION

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Authors
Lovejoy, Charles V.
Subjects
JASPR
active shooter
active shooter protection
active shooter response
modeling and simulation
active shooter defeat
agent-based model
simulation
joint
response time
automatic door locks
active shooting
first responders
total deaths
probability of hit
shooter firing rate
active shooter suicide
active shooter entrance location
bystanders
active shooter victims
Advisors
Lucas, Thomas W.
Sanchez, Susan M.
Date of Issue
2020-06
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
The Joint Active Shooter Protection and Response (JASPR) is a DoD-proposed active shooter defeat system, designed to detect an active shooting, alert first responders, reduce response time, activate automatic door locks preventing further targeting by the active shooter and, as a result, decrease the number of lives lost during the shooting. Active shooter defeat systems have been sparsely studied in the literature, and JASPR has not yet been widely demonstrated to be effective. This research uses an agent-based model to compare lives lost during an active shooting with and without a JASPR system present. This research models how many total deaths there are, on average, according to the active shooter’s choice of entrance location into a simulated building, shooter probability of hit, shooter firing rate, whether the shooter suicides at a random interval after the first shot, response time of first responders, number of bystanders in the vicinity of an active shooting, and whether a JASPR system is present. Analysis of the model results indicate that JASPR presence, shooter’s choice of entrance location into the building, and whether the shooter suicides were the most critical in determining how many total lives were lost across 45,000 model replications. The results of this research are intended to help decision makers prioritize where and how an active shooter defeat system such as JASPR might be best deployed.
Type
Thesis
Description
Department
Operations Research (OR)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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