A model for estimating the collateral damage resulting from an intercepted theater/tactical ballistic missile
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Authors
Oliver, Joseph M.
Subjects
Advisors
Gaver, Donald P.
Date of Issue
1995-03
Date
March 1995
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
The ability to produce an accurate estimate of the expected amount of damage that will occur to a targeted region from the fragments generated by intercepting a Theater/Tactical Ballistic Missile (TBM) in flight is necessary for determining whether the TBM should or should not be intercepted. For a sea- based Theater Missile Defense (TMD) system capable of predicting the remaining portion of the TBM's trajectory along with its impact point from its current and past flight parameters, possessing this ability may prevent unnecessary intercepts, and thus unnecessary damage. This thesis proposes a simplistic simulation model that produces expected damage estimates for various intercept ranges. Damage is evaluated in three areas: number of fragments to impact the target region, total mass to impact the target region, and total kinetic energy to impact the target region. The values generated by this model can aid in the decision of whether to intercept the TBM or not by comparing them against the expected damage values caused by the unintercepted TBM which are calculated by the sea-based TMD system.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
NA
Format
132 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.