Publication:
A theory and model for the planning of land combat

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Authors
Schwartz, Thomas Joseph
Subjects
Land warfare
military planning
military science
theory of combat
categorical modeling
multivariate analysis
Advisors
Caldwell, William J.
Johnson, Laura D.
Date of Issue
1990-09
Date
1990-09
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Planning land combat operations requires a method of evaluation to determine the strengths and weaknesses of the various possible courses of action. The principal means of evaluating these courses of action is wargaming. Some research indicates that planning efforts lack a coherent set of wargaming rules and principles that are widely accepted and understood by military professionals. This thesis develops a theory of combat for use by military professionals in the planning of land combat. The theory provides a method for evaluating alternative courses of action at the brigade through corps level that can be easily applied. The theory is based on the analysis and modeling of categorical data from the U.S. Army Concepts Analysis Agency's Benchmark database. The database includes 260 combined arms battles from the period 1937 through 1982. Loglinear models provide maximum likelihood estimates of the probability of an attack's success. The principle of falsification is explained and used to validate the theory using the historical data. Applications of the theory and model to the planning of land combat are discussed and areas for further research are outlined.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research (OR)
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
viii, 55 p. ill.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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