Upper ocean thermal structure forecast evaluation of a model using synoptic data
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Authors
Johnson, William Fawver
Subjects
Advisors
Elsberry, Russell L.
Date of Issue
1977-09
Date
September 1977
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
A one-dimensional model (Camp, 1976) is used to simulate ocean thermal structure response to
synoptic scale atmospheric forcing data at six locations for a period of 20 days in August 1974
and 40 days from 21 November to 31 December 1974. The atmospheric forcing data (Solar Radiation, Total Heat Flux and Marine Winds) were obtained from Fleet Numerical Weather Central (FNWC) Primitive Equation and Marine Wind Models. Data used to initialize and verify the ocean thermal structure
originated from bathythermograph data stored at FNWC. Length of simulation ranged from 72 hours to 36 days and was limited by the length of continuous historical data available for study. Results show the forcing functions contain sufficient resolution to define diurnal and synoptic time scale events. When the model is run using these forcing functions it produces changes in the mixed-layer depth and mixed-layer temperature on the same time scales. The magnitude of these changes ranged typically from diurnal fluctuations of 20 m/day and .3°C during summer conditions to synoptic scale deepening of 50 m and cooling by 2°C in 36 days during winter conditions. These results were verified when observations were present in this area. The capability now exists to produce real time dynamic ocean thermal profiles in areas of infrequent observations and also to forecast changes in ocean thermal structure up to 72 hours from the time of an observation.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Meteorology
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.