Publication:
ANALYSIS OF TRAINING PROGRESSION IMPACTS IN NAVAL AVIATION AT THE UNIT LEVEL

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Authors
Fetter, Richard T.
Subjects
CNAF
Random Forest
Time Series
ETS
AutoArima
Advisors
Yoshida, Ruriko
Date of Issue
2022-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
In an increasingly budget-constrained environment, Naval Aviation faces the daunting challenge of both meeting vital operational requirements and maintaining a high standard of readiness while concurrently determining allocation of limited resources. The role that Naval Aviation plays in extending policy and advancing US interests around the globe necessitates a high level of excellence and demands that Naval Aviation leaders ensure safety, maximize readiness, and judiciously adhere to the latest defense guidance and doctrine. This study addresses a pivotal aspect of that demand and a key metric in aviation readiness; squadron Training Progression and the associated impacts resulting from changes in funded flight hours at a unit level. It examines the important factors contributing to Training Progression scores and uses advanced time series analysis methods to predict Training Progression for future months. The study uses a dataset obtained from Commander, Naval Air Forces (CNAF) Force Readiness Analytics Group (FRAG) covering periods from July 2020 to September 2022 and containing observations from 313 different units reporting 78 unique variables of particular interest in answering these complex questions. This research identifies several areas of interest and highlights variables including deployment cycle phase and number of pilots, among others that greatly impact Training Progression. Additionally, it provides models to produce more valid predictions of future scores.
Type
Thesis
Description
Department
Operations Research (OR)
Organization
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NPS Report Number
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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