Publication:
The use of statistical measures to validate system dynamics models

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Authors
Stephan, Todd David
Subjects
Software development
Model validation
Simulation
Advisors
Abdel-Hamid, Tarek K.
Date of Issue
1992-03
Date
March 1992
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
System dynamics modelers have often been criticized for the informal methods of model validation and for not using more formal, quantifiable measures to lend confidence to the validation process. Numerous proponents of the system dynamics approach have highlighted this shortcoming, however, and have suggested a variety of appropriate statistical measures which could be used in the model validation process. The objective of this thesis is to complement earlier validation efforts of the Abdel-Hamid and Madnick System Dynamics Model of Software Development by submitting the model to a battery of appropriate statistical measures. The model is evaluated with statistics which have been used by others in the system dynamics field. The evaluation makes two different comparisons. First, an evaluative comparison is made between data generated by the model and actual data of two real software projects. Then, an evaluative comparison is made between model generated data and data obtained by direct experimentation for two different experiments, using the model's gaming interface. The two evaluations serve to promote confidence in the model.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Department of Administrative Sciences
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
68 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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