Accuracy in orbital propagation: A comparison of predictive software models

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dc.contributor.advisorLuqi
dc.contributor.advisorRacoosin, Charles M.
dc.contributor.authorWildt, Christopher F.
dc.contributor.departmentSpace Systems Academic Group (SSAG)
dc.contributor.secondreaderStefanou, Marcus S.
dc.dateJun-17
dc.date.accessioned2017-08-14T16:47:00Z
dc.date.available2017-08-14T16:47:00Z
dc.date.issued2017-06
dc.description.abstractCurrent analytical satellite vulnerability planning in the U.S. Space Surveillance System is reliant on two orbital propagators, PPT3 and SGP4, both of which have a foundation in similar theory. Since their first operational use, both propagators have incorporated updated theory and mathematical techniques to model additional forces in the space environment, causing their calculation methods to diverge over time. The aggregate effects of these diverging mathematical techniques cause calculation differences for perturbations of an orbit over time, resulting in differences in future predicted positions from PPT3 and SGP4, as well as differences in their accuracy. The atmospheric model within each propagator is determined to be the most effective component of each propagator to test, as the theoretical atmospheric drag calculation methods of PPT3 and SGP4 differ greatly. PPT3 and SGP4 both perform well within the expected accuracy limits inherent with analytical models, with neither propagator demonstrating an accuracy rate decay that was significantly better or worse than the other. Compared to ground truth observations, both propagators demonstrate decreased accuracy for satellites under greater effects from atmospheric drag, i.e., satellites that are closer to the Earth. Satellite vulnerability planning with these propagators should therefore utilize the most current TLE data available to avoid accuracy errors.en_US
dc.description.distributionstatementApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
dc.description.serviceMajor, United States Marine Corpsen_US
dc.description.urihttp://archive.org/details/accuracyinorbita1094555555
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10945/55555
dc.publisherMonterey, California: Naval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
dc.rightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.en_US
dc.subject.authororbital mechanicsen_US
dc.subject.authororbital prediction softwareen_US
dc.titleAccuracy in orbital propagation: A comparison of predictive software modelsen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dspace.entity.typePublication
etd.thesisdegree.disciplineSpace Systems Operationsen_US
etd.thesisdegree.grantorNaval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
etd.thesisdegree.levelMastersen_US
etd.thesisdegree.nameMaster of Science in Space Systems Operationsen_US
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