REMOTE WARFARE AND SMALL WESTERN COUNTRIES
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Authors
Craninx, Cedric F.
Subjects
remote warfare
small Western countries
risk analysis
operational effectiveness
small Western countries
risk analysis
operational effectiveness
Advisors
Porter, Wayne
Date of Issue
2023-06
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Remote warfare consists of specific components interacting to maximize operational effectiveness. Many smaller Western countries opt for this model to counter threats from a distance, reduce risk, and curb financial costs, but due to their strategic culture and limited resources, these countries cannot fully employ the model. This research aims to determine the impact of remote warfare on risk and operational effectiveness for small Western countries. Systemic strategic analysis identifies that a synergy of intelligence sources and methods increases the available data to enhance the operational effectiveness and its measurement, thereby reducing judgmental biases and error and subsequently increasing strategic and political support. System dynamics modeling and simulation were used to analyze the effectiveness of two types of remote warfare support: training support and intelligence support to a local partner. The conclusion is that growing the partner’s force size through training is ineffective if remote intelligence support is not provided. Intelligence support to a partner nation’s force enhances its ability to find and fix the insurgent force, reducing its size and effectiveness. This research recommends shifting the focus of remote warfare support from training assistance alone to a concept that combines special operations forces with coalitions to build partner capacity and to provide a broader spectrum of support options, most importantly, more types of intelligence.
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Thesis
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Department
Defense Analysis (DA)
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
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Copyright is reserved by the copyright owner.