User Focus and Simulation Improve Predictions of Piracy Risk
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Authors
Slootmaker, Leslie A.
Regnier, Eva
Hansen, James A.
Lucas, Thomas W.
Subjects
defense
applications of simulation
design of experiments
applications of simulation
design of experiments
Advisors
Date of Issue
2013
Date
2013
Publisher
Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)
Language
en_US
Abstract
Piracy is an increasingly costly and violent threat to commercial shipping and other vessels off the Horn of Africa. However, because pirates operate in small vessels that cannot navigate or attack in high seas or winds, pirate activity is highly sensitive to environmental conditions. The US Naval Oceanographic Office provides an operational forecast of the pirate threat; counterpiracy forces use this forecast to allocate their efforts over several million square miles. The most recent version uses simulation to model the effects of pirate behavior in interaction with winds, waves, and currents over time to forecast the geographic distribution of the pirate threat. As part of the development of the pirate behavior model, one author traveled to Bahrain to interview counter- piracy forces. We then used carefully designed simulation experiments to identify the variables that are most influential in determining the distribution of predicted pirate activity. The results confirmed the importance of elements of the pirate behavior model that were derived from our operator interviews, informed decisions regarding operational settings for key parameters, and generated insights to guide future updates to the model and intelligence-gathering efforts. The resulting model uses our recommendations, including alternate pirate search patterns. It has been operational since March 2011 and is briefed daily to the senior leadership of US Naval Forces Central Command.
Type
Article
Description
The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.1287/inte.2013.0678
Series/Report No
Department
Graduate School of Defense Management (GSDM)
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
This work was supported by the Office of Naval Research [Grant N0001410WX20795] and the Naval Postgraduate School’s Simulation, Experiments and Efficient Design Center
Funder
This work was supported by the Office of Naval Research [Grant N0001410WX20795] and the Naval Postgraduate School’s Simulation, Experiments and Efficient Design Center
Format
12 p.
Citation
Leslie A. Slootmaker, Eva Regnier, James A. Hansen, Thomas W. Lucas, (2013) User Focus and Simulation Improve Predictions of Piracy Risk. INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics 43(3):256-267.
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.