Regional Implications of Shi'a Revival in Iraq
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Authors
Nasr, Vali
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Date of Issue
2004
Date
Summer 2004
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Abstract
Since regime change disenfranchised the Sunni minority leadership
that had ruled Iraq since the country’s independence in 1932 and empowered
the Shi‘a majority, the Shi‘a-Sunni competition for power has emerged
as the single greatest determinant of peace and stability in post-Saddam
Iraq. Iraq’s sectarian pains are all the more complex because reverberations
of Shi‘a empowerment will inevitably extend beyond Iraq’s borders, involving
the broader region from Lebanon to Pakistan. The change in the sectarian
balance of power is likely to have a far more immediate and powerful
impact on politics in the greater Middle East than any potential example of
a moderate and progressive government in Baghdad. The change in the sectarian
balance of power will shape public perception of U.S. policies in Iraq
as well as the long-standing balance of power between the Shi‘a and Sunnis
that sets the foundation of politics from Lebanon to Pakistan. U.S. interests
in the greater Middle East are now closely tied to the risks and opportunities
that will emanate from the Shi‘a revival in Iraq.
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Article
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National Security Affairs
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Citation
The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 27, No. 3, pp. 7–24, Summer 2004.
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.