Crisis and Opportunity: Russia’s War in Ukraine and the Middle East
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Authors
Ostovar, Afshon
Gingeras, Ryan
Meierding, Emily
Subjects
Russia
Ukraine
great power competition
Middle East
Persian Gulf
Iran
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Israel
oil
gas
wheat
energy
economics
hydrocarbons
energy
food security
war
conflict
geopolitics
Ukraine
great power competition
Middle East
Persian Gulf
Iran
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Israel
oil
gas
wheat
energy
economics
hydrocarbons
energy
food security
war
conflict
geopolitics
Advisors
Date of Issue
2023-09
Date
September 2023
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Russia’s war in Ukraine instigated a new era in strategic competition. As this report examines, outside of Europe, no region has been more affected
by the war than the Middle East, nor been more consequential to its geopolitics. The report analyzes how the war became a crisis and opportunity for
regional powers. All Middle East powers declared neutrality in the conflict; however, as this report identifies, their actions tended to bolster Russia’s
position in the war more often than not, putting them at odds with U.S. policies and interests. Whereas Iran backed Russia with military aid, further
deepening the Russo-Iranian strategic convergence, other regional states pursued a less overtly supportive approach. Both Turkey and Israel
attempted to balance their relations with Ukraine and Russia, even if the latter is more important to their foreign policy objectives. Saudi Arabia and
the UAE deepened ties to Russia and provided indirect support. The UAE became crucial to Russia’s ability to sell oil and navigate sanctions, and
Saudi Arabia backed Russia’s war through its own self-interest of keeping oil prices rising. The disruption to wheat exports from Ukraine—which
threatened food insecurity in the region and beyond—was managed, and disaster averted, but the potential for serious disruptions remains. The
report concludes by highlighting how the Middle East’s role in the conflict, as well as the war’s impact on the region, has been a stark reminder that
great power competition is neither binary nor limited to the principal competitors—its ramifications are global and regional actors play an important, if
underappreciated role.
Type
Technical Report
Description
Prepared for: OPNAV N3/N5. This research is supported by funding from the Naval
Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). NRP Project NPS-23-N263A
Series/Report No
Department
National Security Affairs (NSA)
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
NPS-NSA-23-004
Sponsors
Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program; OPNAV N3/N5
Funder
Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098)
Format
72 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.