Adaptive standard operating procedures for complex disasters
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Authors
Harwood, Shawn M.
Subjects
complexity
standard operating procedures
adaptability
innovation
crisis response
emergency response
homeland security enterprise
complex systems
9/11
Hurricane Katrina
Fukushima-Dai'ichi
standard operating procedures
adaptability
innovation
crisis response
emergency response
homeland security enterprise
complex systems
9/11
Hurricane Katrina
Fukushima-Dai'ichi
Advisors
Porter, Wayne
Nieto-Gomez, Rodrigo
Date of Issue
2017-03
Date
Mar-17
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Standard operating procedures (SOPs) guide emergency responders in a crisis, providing predetermined steps to manage anticipated events. Modern disasters, however, often manifest as complex systems—susceptible to nonlinear interactions and feedback in the environment that produce unanticipated outcomes. As a consequence, the application of prediction-dependent SOPs to such prediction-defiant scenarios yields ineffective emergency management. In contrast, case studies suggest that crisis responses demonstrating adaptable behavior often succeed in a complex environment. If adaptability mitigates complex problems, then modern crisis SOPs should embrace an adaptive approach. This thesis proposes two practical, executable means of integrating adaptability into SOP-driven crisis response. Both options rely on current research in complex adaptive systems theory and a pragmatic application of the Socratic method. The first proposal is the incorporation of adaptability prompts into pre-existing crisis SOPs. These prompts are instructional steps that help emergency responders identify unanticipated behavior during complex events and adjust their crisis response plans accordingly. The second proposal recommends the creation of a crisis co-pilot, an ad hoc advisor who helps the lead emergency responder identify any divergence from predicted behavior and encourages adaptation in the field. To support these policy recommendations, this thesis also presents a computer simulation of air traffic controller responses during the 9/11 attacks, quantifying hypothetical improvements in response times attained by implementing the adaptive design proposals. Today's emergency response paradigm must acclimate to the unpredictable nature of complex environments. This thesis recommends operational modifications that promote adaptability to manage complex crises.
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Thesis
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Department
National Security Affairs (NSA)
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.