Adaptive standard operating procedures for complex disasters

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dc.contributor.advisorPorter, Wayne
dc.contributor.advisorNieto-Gomez, Rodrigo
dc.contributor.authorHarwood, Shawn M.
dc.contributor.departmentNational Security Affairs (NSA)
dc.dateMar-17
dc.date.accessioned2017-05-10T16:31:37Z
dc.date.available2017-05-10T16:31:37Z
dc.date.issued2017-03
dc.description.abstractStandard operating procedures (SOPs) guide emergency responders in a crisis, providing predetermined steps to manage anticipated events. Modern disasters, however, often manifest as complex systems—susceptible to nonlinear interactions and feedback in the environment that produce unanticipated outcomes. As a consequence, the application of prediction-dependent SOPs to such prediction-defiant scenarios yields ineffective emergency management. In contrast, case studies suggest that crisis responses demonstrating adaptable behavior often succeed in a complex environment. If adaptability mitigates complex problems, then modern crisis SOPs should embrace an adaptive approach. This thesis proposes two practical, executable means of integrating adaptability into SOP-driven crisis response. Both options rely on current research in complex adaptive systems theory and a pragmatic application of the Socratic method. The first proposal is the incorporation of adaptability prompts into pre-existing crisis SOPs. These prompts are instructional steps that help emergency responders identify unanticipated behavior during complex events and adjust their crisis response plans accordingly. The second proposal recommends the creation of a crisis co-pilot, an ad hoc advisor who helps the lead emergency responder identify any divergence from predicted behavior and encourages adaptation in the field. To support these policy recommendations, this thesis also presents a computer simulation of air traffic controller responses during the 9/11 attacks, quantifying hypothetical improvements in response times attained by implementing the adaptive design proposals. Today's emergency response paradigm must acclimate to the unpredictable nature of complex environments. This thesis recommends operational modifications that promote adaptability to manage complex crises.en_US
dc.description.distributionstatementApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
dc.description.serviceSpecial Agent, Homeland Security Investigations, U.S. Department of Homeland Securityen_US
dc.description.urihttp://archive.org/details/adaptivestandard1094552987
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10945/52987
dc.publisherMonterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
dc.rightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.en_US
dc.subject.authorcomplexityen_US
dc.subject.authorstandard operating proceduresen_US
dc.subject.authoradaptabilityen_US
dc.subject.authorinnovationen_US
dc.subject.authorcrisis responseen_US
dc.subject.authoremergency responseen_US
dc.subject.authorhomeland security enterpriseen_US
dc.subject.authorcomplex systemsen_US
dc.subject.author9/11en_US
dc.subject.authorHurricane Katrinaen_US
dc.subject.authorFukushima-Dai'ichien_US
dc.titleAdaptive standard operating procedures for complex disastersen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dspace.entity.typePublication
etd.thesisdegree.disciplineSecurity Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)en_US
etd.thesisdegree.grantorNaval Postgraduate Schoolen_US
etd.thesisdegree.levelMastersen_US
etd.thesisdegree.nameMaster of Arts in Security Studies (Homeland Security and Defense)en_US
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