A NEW SIMULATION-OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR WILDLAND FIRE RESOURCE PRE-POSITIONING
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Authors
Seeberger, Rachel A.
Subjects
wildfires
resource augmentation
pre-positioning
optimization
logistic regression
fire department
fire management
burn index
resource augmentation
pre-positioning
optimization
logistic regression
fire department
fire management
burn index
Advisors
Salmeron-Medrano, Javier
Date of Issue
2020-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Every day, using detailed weather forecasts, paired with reports on the moisture content of soil and vegetation, the Los Angeles County Fire Department (LACoFD) must decide where to pre-position firefighting equipment and personnel for the following day. For years, LACoFD has relied on their own expert judgment to make these costly decisions. In 2019, NPS student Zachary Scholz developed the Augmentation Optimization Model (AOM), a mathematically based decision tool to guide resource pre-positioning. Unfortunately, AOM relies on weak estimations of expected burned acreage, complicating result interpretation. We address this problem by developing a simulation to estimate “initial attack” area containment as a function of pre-positioned resources. These estimates inform the new AOM’s objective, producing improved, realistic, and interpretable results. In addition, we have followed LACoFD feedback to incorporate accessibility and steepness of terrain, hand-crew resources, and solution evaluation. We also standardize assembled resources as mixes of engines and exchangeable personnel and reformulate the model so it generates and solves faster. Through an upgraded user interface, LACoFD is using the new AOM daily and analyzing alternatives of protection and cost. The results improve those of legacy AOM and LACoFD’s manual solutions on the critical days tested. Moreover, we demonstrate that protection can benefit from augmentation policies not solely based on burning index.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research (OR)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
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Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.