Prospects for Deterrence, Escalation, Coercion and War in the Indo-Pacific
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Authors
Russell, James A.
Wirtz, James J.
Malley, Michael
Subjects
deterrence
coercion
escalation ladder
nuclear weapons
maritime strategy
naval power
arms races
Indo-Pacific
coercion
escalation ladder
nuclear weapons
maritime strategy
naval power
arms races
Indo-Pacific
Advisors
Date of Issue
2022-10
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
This project marks the second year that the PI and a team of researchers assess the prospects for war in the Indo-Pacific. The purpose of the assessment is to inform the Navy’s strategy in this vital theater of operations. Drawing upon the theoretical literature, as well as analysis of contemporary geopolitics, this project examines how regional actors assess the prospects for war, specifically their attitudes towards deterrence and escalation management on the use of force at sea, and the implications for possible conflict with Indo-Pacific competitors. The study highlights the need for the Navy to unpack the geopolitical complexities of this region that are inextricably intertwined with the uncertainties of structuring a deterrent force that can help create a political environment to minimize the chances of regional war. This complex endeavor is more of an art than a science.
Type
Technical Report
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
NPS-NSA-22-002
Sponsors
Naval Research Program, Naval Postgraduate School; N3/N5.
Funder
This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrp
Chief of Naval Operations (CNO)
Chief of Naval Operations (CNO)
Format
50 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.