A SURGE ON THE HORIZON: IMPROVING U.S. FORESIGHT CAPACITY TO ANTICIPATE MASS MIGRATIONS
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Authors
Riesner, Katie M.
Subjects
immigration
mass migration
foresight
future planning
strategic foresight
migration
southwest border
mass migration
foresight
future planning
strategic foresight
migration
southwest border
Advisors
Nieto-Gomez, Rodrigo
Date of Issue
2021-09
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
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Abstract
Mass migrations at the southwest border are nothing new, but surges in unaccompanied minors and family units crossing the border in short periods are increasingly overwhelming the U.S. government's capacity to respond, resulting in humanitarian, legal, and financial consequences. Due to the complex motivations for migrating, U.S. immigration authorities currently lack the ability to anticipate mass-migration events, making it difficult to prepare for them. This thesis poses the question of how the U.S. government can improve its foresight capacity to anticipate and manage mass-migration events. This thesis does not model mass-migration events, but rather demonstrates that such work is feasible and necessary. This analysis uses Maslow's hierarchy of needs as a framework to organize the reasons for migration and offers ways to quantify such factors. Next, it explores available technologies that could increase the accuracy of migration forecasting and various modeling methods that could be used to synthesize such data. This thesis then examines strategic foresight units across governments, identifying best practices that could be used to build out the capacity to conduct strategic forecasting within the mass-migration sphere. Ultimately, this thesis finds that strategic foresight vis-à-vis mass migration is possible and recommends creating a strategic foresight unit tasked with anticipating mass-migration flows.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
National Security Affairs (CHDS)
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NPS Report Number
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
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Copyright is reserved by the copyright owner.