Publication:
Some Methods of Investigating the Stochastic Properties of Crime Trends

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Authors
Francisco, Crisogono Rebano
Subjects
Crime trends
Control charts
Exponential smoothing
Police effectiveness
Advisors
Lindsay, Glenn F.
Date of Issue
1976-09
Date
September 1976
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Three quantitative methods of investigating and analyzing the stochastic properties of crime trends are suggested. The careful use of control charts may assist Law Enforcement Agencies in determining with varying degrees of accuracy, whether the actual incidence of crime is under control or not. Exponential smoothing is recommended for forecasting crime trends due to its unique capacity to place more weight on the most recent observations. Finally, the investigation of the interrelationships and the determination of the probable sources of variability among different felonies are presented using the analysis of variance. Felonies with the same sociological as well as statistical characteristics may be aggregated. These methodologies, taken together, may possibly assist in determining the efficiency or inefficiency of law enforcement programs and, possibly, a more effective utilization of resources.
Type
Thesis
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Department
Operations Research (OR)
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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Copyright is reserved by the copyright owner.
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