A Better Basis for Ship Acquisition Decisions
Loading...
Authors
Billingsley, Dan
Subjects
Costing
Naval Ship Acquisition, Cost, Performance, Rist, Schedule,
Naval Ship Acquisition, Cost, Performance, Rist, Schedule,
Advisors
Date of Issue
2011-04-30
Date
30-Apr-11
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Naval ship acquisition is widely thought to be too expensive, too long, too uncertain, and too risky.
Throughout the ship development process, decision makers at all levels are afflicted by unreliable estimates and projections of cost, performance, schedule, and risk of competing alternatives. In this context, ''decision makers'' includes senior Navy leadership, program officers, and ship design managers, all of whom make decisions affecting the eventual product.
How can estimates and projections of cost, performance, schedule, and risk be improved? To some extent, decision making in the face of uncertainty is an inescapable part of the development of naval warships due to their unrivaled complexity. This is especially true in the early stages of ship development. However, analysis indicates that the quality of cost, performance, schedule, and risk estimates could be substantially improved by actions addressing the root causes of poor estimates.
This paper examines four root causes of poor cost, performance, schedule, and risk estimates and projections in the context of ship information development and flow. Eight solution vectors are identified that can provide higher quality estimates and projections earlier in the design process, reducing the uncertainties faced by decision makers, saving expensive engineering labor, and increasing assurance that the delivered ship will satisfy requirements. The relationship of particular solution vectors to the particular root causes is provided in tabular and discussion form.
Type
Technical Report
Description
Proceedings Paper (for Acquisition Research Program)
Series/Report No
Department
Acquisition Management
Other Research Faculty
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
NPS-AM-11-C8P18R02-064
Sponsors
Naval Postgraduate School Acquisition Research Program
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.