Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Motion over the Northeastem Pacific Ocean by an Analog Scheme
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Authors
Jarrell, J.D.
Mauck, C.J.
Renard, R.J.
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Date of Issue
1975-08
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Abstract
The Navy's EPANALOG (Northeastern Pacifi.c Analog Tropical Cyclone Tracker) f~recast prog~am is
introduced. EP ANALOG selects analog tropical cyclones from a 25-year northeastern Pa~fi.c Ocean history.
The selected analog tracks, statistically adjusted for position, vector motio~, an? date ~erences between
them and the recent history of the tropical cyclone being forecast, are composited mto a smgle forecast track.
Verifications of EPANALOG forecasts to 96 h, as initiated from best-track positions, are shown for randomly
selected historical cases with a Monte Carlo simulation of initial position inaccuracies, as well as for forecasts
generated from 1973 operational cyclone positions. The latter are intercompared with a homogeneous set
of objective persistence and MOHATT forecasts as well as subjective OFFICIAL forecasts for. the 24, 48,
and 72 h intervals. The 1973 EPANALOG accuracy is shown to generally excel that of the existent techniques
for all forecast intervals tested.
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Description
The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1975)103<0674:FTCMOT>2.0.CO;2
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Citation
Monthly Weather Review, Volume 103, pp. 674-684.