A risk and comparative analysis of aircraft accident data
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Authors
Burin, James Michael
Subjects
Aviation Safety
Risk Index
Risk Rate
Risk Analysis
Poisson Modeling
Risk Index
Risk Rate
Risk Analysis
Poisson Modeling
Advisors
Stephan, Robert A.
Date of Issue
1974-09
Date
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
Aircraft accident data was analyzed to investigate the
differences in risk of Naval aircraft and to develop some
overall risk measure. To analyze risk, a flight was divided
into four risk areas; takeoff, inflight, transistion, and
landing. Accidents were assumed to occur according to a
Poisson process and tests were carried out to prove the validity
of the Poisson assumption. The Poisson model yielded
two factors , the exposure to the risk areas and the performance
in them, which were used to construct a risk measure
and to explain the differences in the present accident rates.
A procedure to predict risk was developed. A statistic, improvement
index, was developed to allow a direct comparison
between different types of aircraft with respect to safety
performance with differences in risk taken into account.
Another statistic, weighted improvement index, is proposed
to provide insight into where the primary positive and negative
contributions to Naval aviation safety are made in any
given year. The aircraft studied were the major Naval operational
and training aircraft, and the period of primary
interest was fiscal year 1969 through fiscal year 1973.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.