Publication:
EMPLOYING MARKOV MODELS TO FORECAST THE END STRENGTH OF THE US NAVY SUPPLY CORPS’ FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT (3111) COMMUNITY

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Authors
Jacobs, Brett R.
Curtis, Michael A.
King, Dartanyon R.
Subjects
Supply Corps
Navy
financial management
manpower
business financial management
837
BFM
AQD
Additional Qualification Designation
SSP
sub-specialty code
3100
Markov
Advisors
Seagren, Chad W.
Date of Issue
2022-06
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
The Navy Supply Corps has a wide array of Subspecialties (SSP) and Additional Qualification Designations (AQD) that define an officer’s skillset/experience and billet requirements. Current planning by the Supply Corps’ Office of Personnel (OP) assumes identical retention rates across all SSP/AQD combinations. This strategy may lead to unanticipated effects when changes to policy occur. Our research applies the Markov model to manpower data obtained from OP to analyze the current and forecasted end strength of the Supply Corps’ Financial Management (FM) community. This research addresses the following questions: 1) What are the forecasted end strengths for Navy Supply Corps Officers with FM experience and qualifications? 2) Does the FM community’s current billet structure create enough FM officers to achieve OP’s inventory goal of 2.5 times the number of qualified FM officers per FM billet at the O5-O6 level? We find that if the Supply Corps’ FM community continues along its current manpower trajectory, OP will likely never achieve its inventory goal for the community. However, our models provide multiple ways through which OP can achieve its O5-O6 inventory goals over time.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Department of Defense Management (DDM)
Department of Defense Management (DDM)
Department of Defense Management (DDM)
Other Units
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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