At periscope depth: exploring submarine proliferation in Southeast Asia
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Authors
Hardy, Corwin J.
Subjects
submarine
non-nuclear submarine
diesel-electric submarine
undersea
submarine proliferation
Southeast Asia
deterrence
enforcement
prestige
regional security
non-nuclear submarine
diesel-electric submarine
undersea
submarine proliferation
Southeast Asia
deterrence
enforcement
prestige
regional security
Advisors
Malley, Michael S.
Moltz, James Clay
Date of Issue
2015-09
Date
Sep-15
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Submarine proliferation in the post–Cold War environment has led to an exponential increase in the number of regional submarine operators and begs the question: Were these submarine purchases made for deterrence, enforcement, prestige, or a combination of the three? This thesis compared the case studies of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam, analyzed statements made by government and defense officials, and weighed each against the regional security environment to determine states’ rationales for purchasing submarines. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore likely purchased submarines for deterrence and enforcement, and Vietnam for deterrence. The deterrence imperative for all states was relatively strong, but enforcement rationales varied; prestige lacked credible evidence as a rationale for submarine purchases. Future submarine proliferators, including the Philippines and Thailand, are likely to successfully acquire submarines when the deterrence or enforcement imperatives are strongest. These findings are significant because regional submarine operations that increase the potential for undersea conflict or accidents can be minimized if governments can reduce the threat perceptions of other states or find alternative, effective methods to enforce the maritime domain.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
National Security Affairs
National Security Affairs
Organization
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NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.