An adaptive security construct: insurgency in Sudan

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Authors
Stoner, Tommy E.
Maitre, Benjamin R.
Colloton, Patrick T.
Subjects
Strategic assessments
Sudan
insurgency
internal wars
intrastate security
nation-states
game theory
network analysis
nexus topography
adaptive security construct
Advisors
McCormick, Gordon H.
Date of Issue
2007-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Internal wars are by default the business of others, until someone says they are not. Artificially contained within the confines of the current international system, insurgent conflicts are considered domestic affairs only until they threaten external interests. In judging intrastate conflict by and large from a crisis-response perspective, conventional assessment methodologies, oriented largely toward interstate wars, tend to fall short in objectively analyzing the historical and dynamic aspects of internal wars. This thesis develops an Adaptive Security Construct (ASC) that aims to correct such shortcomings through the multi-disciplinary integration of three conceptual lenses: a qualitative situation estimate, a game-theoretic dynamic conflict model, and geospatially oriented nexus topography. Using Sudan's internal wars as a case study, where the existence of signed peace-agreements in both the south and Darfur exist in apparent contradiction of these conflicts' causes, the ASC iteratively correlates the analysis of each of the three lenses to provide an observer a more objective external view of conflicts that are inherently "internal." This thesis presents the ASC as an iterative process and perspective that enables the formulation of general imperatives and specific approaches in response to contemporary arenas of conflict, both in Sudan and within the international community at large.
Type
Thesis
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Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
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Format
xvi, 172 p. : ill., col. maps ;
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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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