Publication:
AN EXPLORATION OF THE MARSUPIAL PARADIGM IN DEVELOPING AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVES FROM 2020: JOSEPHINE, ISAIAS, AND LAURA

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Authors
Britton, Scott C.
Subjects
hurricane
Lagrangian
marsupial paradigm
MP
Okubo-Weiss
OW
pouch
prediction
tropical cyclone
TC
Advisors
Montgomery, Michael T.
Date of Issue
2021-06
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
This thesis applies the marsupial paradigm (MP) conceptual model of tropical cyclone (TC) formation previously used to describe the transition from a tropical disturbance to a tropical depression. A case study of three storms that formed from African easterly waves in the North Atlantic during the 2020 hurricane season, Isaias, Josephine, and Laura, provides insight into the pre-formation structures called wave-pouches. The analysis evaluates several variables including the Okubo-Weiss (OW) parameter, relative vorticity, relative humidity, and vertical shear in a comoving (quasi-Lagrangian) framework. Additionally, GOES-16 Channel 13 infrared imagery emphasizing cloud presence was coupled in sequence with the analyses to reveal connections between wave-pouch structure and observed developing convection. Furthermore, this work addresses pouch interactions with shear and other pouches or vortices. The study concludes with recommendations to forecasters on how to incorporate the MP into pre-TC analysis alongside the global numerical weather model outputs.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Meteorology (MR)
Other Units
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
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Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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