Evaluation of the Fleet Numerical Weather Central operational primitive-equation model in forecasting extratropical cyclogenesis.
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Authors
Klopfenstein, Timothy David
Subjects
Advisors
Tracton, M. Steven
Date of Issue
1973-03
Date
March 1973
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
This paper describes an attempt to find systematic errors
in the 12, 24 and 36-hour sea-level pressure forecasts of
extratropical cyclogenesis produced by the operational five-layer
primitive-equation model of the Fleet Numerical Weather
Central, Monterey, California. The sample of cases studied
contained 488 cases for the 12-hour, 484 cases for the 24-
hour, and 446 cases for the 36-hour verifying times. The
sample was extracted from the storm season spanning the period
October 1971 through March 1972. Several systematic
errors exist. They are: 1) an underforecast of the deepening
rate in a majority of cases; 2) a tendency to greatly
underforecast the deepening rate in the 12-hour prognoses and
then to under forecast to a lesser degree or overforecast the
subsequent 12-hour changes; 3) ; a tendency to forecast the
track to the right of the actual track; and 4) a tendency to
forecast the 36-hour position to the south and west of actual
position. When compared to the National Meteorological Center's
six-layer primitive-equation model, Fleet Numerical
Weather Central's model showed comparable or superior performance.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Meteorology
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.