Publication:
Evaluation of the Fleet Numerical Weather Central operational primitive-equation model in forecasting extratropical cyclogenesis.

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Authors
Klopfenstein, Timothy David
Subjects
Advisors
Tracton, M. Steven
Date of Issue
1973-03
Date
March 1973
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
This paper describes an attempt to find systematic errors in the 12, 24 and 36-hour sea-level pressure forecasts of extratropical cyclogenesis produced by the operational five-layer primitive-equation model of the Fleet Numerical Weather Central, Monterey, California. The sample of cases studied contained 488 cases for the 12-hour, 484 cases for the 24- hour, and 446 cases for the 36-hour verifying times. The sample was extracted from the storm season spanning the period October 1971 through March 1972. Several systematic errors exist. They are: 1) an underforecast of the deepening rate in a majority of cases; 2) a tendency to greatly underforecast the deepening rate in the 12-hour prognoses and then to under forecast to a lesser degree or overforecast the subsequent 12-hour changes; 3) ; a tendency to forecast the track to the right of the actual track; and 4) a tendency to forecast the 36-hour position to the south and west of actual position. When compared to the National Meteorological Center's six-layer primitive-equation model, Fleet Numerical Weather Central's model showed comparable or superior performance.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Meteorology
Other Units
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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