Publication:
Discrete reliability growth models using failure discounting

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Authors
Drake, James E.
Subjects
Reliability growth
Fractional failure reduction
Advisors
Woods, W.M.
Date of Issue
1987-09
Date
September 1987
Publisher
Language
en_US
Abstract
Three discrete reliability models using fractional failure reduction, referred to as failure discounting, were developed to estimate changing system reliability. Each of the models is designed for use when testing is performed until a fixed number of failures have been observed and attribute data, success or failure, is available for each trial. The first reliability growth model applies failure discounting to the maximum likelihood estimate for a proportion. The second and third models use a modification of en exponential reliability estimate employing linear regression and a weighted average technique respectively along with failure discounting to track changing reliability. Two failure discounting methods were used with each reliability growth model. The first method reduces past failures by a fixed fraction at a fixed interval. the second method uses the upper confidence bound for the reoccurrence of each failure cause as the discounted failure value. The performance of the reliability growth models with varying reliability growth patterns was evaluated with a Monte-Carlo simulation.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Department of Operations Research
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
127 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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