Publication:
Forecasting atmospheric visibility over the summer North Atlantic using the Principal Discriminant Method.

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Authors
Elias, Kristine C.
Subjects
model output statistics
visibility
North Atlantic Ocean visibility
marine visibility
visibility forecasting
principal discriminant method
categorical forecasting
ocean areas
homogeneous ocean areas
Advisors
Renard, Robert J.
Date of Issue
1985-03
Date
March 1985
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
This report describes the application and evaluation of the Principal Discriminant Method (PDM) in the forecasting of horizontal visibility over selected physically homogeneous areas of the North Atlantic Ocean. The main focus of this study is to propose a possible model output statistics (MOS) approach to operationally forecast visibility at the 00-hour model initialization time and the 24-hour and 48-hour model forecast projections, using as data the period 15 May-7 July 1983. The technique utilized involves the manipulation of observed visibility and that Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center's Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) model output parameters. Both two-and three-category visibility models were examined. The resulting zero-and one-class errors as well as the threat scores from the PDM model were compared with those obtained from maximum probability and natural regression studies. For the majority of the experiments performed, PDM was outperformed by the other techniques, although one trial run of an adjusted PDM technique gave results very similar to those of the maximum probability techniques.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Meteorology
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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