Saudi Arabia: a kingdom in decline
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Authors
Midkiff, James R.
Subjects
Advisors
Robinson, G.E.
Date of Issue
1995-09
Date
September 1995
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
This thesis argues that the regime in Saudi Arabia is not prepared to survive a lengthy depression in the oil market. The thesis makes three specific arguments to support this contention. First, I show that Saudi Arabia is a rentier state. That is, unlike most states in the West, the Saudi state relies on external rents for revenues, not internal taxation. Rather than extracting resources from its citizenry, the state merely redistributes resources that come from abroad via the sale of oil. Huge oil revenues permitted the state to allow relations with its own society - relations forged through tribal wars and nascent extraction - to wither. Second, I demonstrate that the on-going depression of the oil market has already weakened the regime, as the growing strength of the Islamist movement indicates. Third, I argue that the oil market will remain weak for years to come, further undermining the Saudi royal family. I conclude by examining the implications for American interests. I argue that, while certain measures should be taken, the United States should not overreact to internal instability in Saudi Arabia. Like in 'revolutionay' Iran, oil will continue to be sold.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
National Security Affairs (NSA)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
NA
Format
81 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.