A CHEMICAL ROMANCE: HOW ALLIANCES AND CONFLICT AFFECT CHEMICAL WEAPON ADOPTION AMONG VIOLENT NON-STATE ACTORS
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Authors
Green, Aaron M.
Price, Christopher M.
Subjects
WMD
weapons of mass destruction
chemical
non-state
terrorist
terrorism
deter
deterrence
SOF
special operations forces
IO
information operations
MISO
IW
information warfare
SNA
social network analysis
dark network
topology
disruption
CP
counter-proliferation
NP
nonproliferation
CT
counter-terrorism
regression
strategic
environmental factors
intelligence
R-Studio
MATLAB
simulation
agent based model
weapons of mass destruction
chemical
non-state
terrorist
terrorism
deter
deterrence
SOF
special operations forces
IO
information operations
MISO
IW
information warfare
SNA
social network analysis
dark network
topology
disruption
CP
counter-proliferation
NP
nonproliferation
CT
counter-terrorism
regression
strategic
environmental factors
intelligence
R-Studio
MATLAB
simulation
agent based model
Advisors
Warren, Timothy C.
Volpe, Tristan
Date of Issue
2019-12
Date
Dec-19
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
With an ongoing pivot toward great power competition, there may be a temptation to reduce counter-proliferation efforts against violent non-state actors (VNSA) to a peripheral mission for U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM). However, the current and emerging threats of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) acquisition and use by VNSA are increasing through the ubiquity of various technologies, materials, and internet access. This research analyzes the use of chemical weapons (CW) by VNSA and the unique challenges of detecting and combating CW at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels. This research first implements regression models using chemical incident data from 1995–2017 to identify which strategic and operational environments are associated with VNSA CW adoption, and uses the outcomes to create a template for predictive intelligence methods for chemical threats. Next, the researchers conduct social network analysis to investigate commonalities among VNSA with chemical programs, and to determine if these CW tactics are geographically migrating. Then, lessons learned from the case study involving al-Qaeda in Iraq yield a proposed disruption model tested in a plausible, near-future scenario. Finally, policy recommendations are provided for USSOCOM and other relevant entities to improve counter-WMD efforts as they relate to the prediction and disruption of the chemical programs of VNSA.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Defense Analysis (DA)
Defense Analysis (DA)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.