MARITIME CONTESTATION AGAINST CHINA BELOW THE THRESHOLD OF CONFLICT: SOUTH CHINA SEA
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Authors
Tran, Viet
Subjects
South China Sea
maritime dispute
China
Vietnam
Philippines
Indonesia
Malaysia
strong state
weak state
escalation
resistance
coercion
non-lethal
lethal
use of force
maritime dispute
China
Vietnam
Philippines
Indonesia
Malaysia
strong state
weak state
escalation
resistance
coercion
non-lethal
lethal
use of force
Advisors
Malley, Michael S.
Date of Issue
2024-06
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Weaker states in the South China Sea maritime disputes have not simply acquiesced to China. Instead, they have demonstrated that they can and will resist China. This thesis addresses how weaker states resist China without escalating to an unacceptable level of conflict. Four case studies involving Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines between 2016 and 2024 are examined. This thesis includes analysis of Chinese red lines and developments regarding use of lethal force. This thesis finds that weak claimants prefer less forceful methods to resist China and their use of warships against Chinese Coast Guard and commercial vessels was effective under specific conditions. International attention or intervention did not tilt the playing field in the weak claimant’s favor. Forceful resistance resulting in damage to property or injury to crew had no impact on either the weak claimants’ or China’s behavior. Weak claimants were able to accomplish their intended missions regardless of the lower levels of force employed and the consistent employment of non-lethal coercion by China. A weak claimant’s joint commercial activities with foreign firms that are associated with other strong states with close ties to China, such as Russia, may have had an impact on mitigating Chinese threats of armed attack. Finally, despite China’s increased capacity to use of lethal force, it has refrained from escalating beyond non-lethal methods of coercion.
Type
Thesis
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Sponsors
NPS Naval Research Program
This project was funded in part by the NPS Naval Research Program.
This project was funded in part by the NPS Naval Research Program.
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Distribution Statement
Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.