Acquisition Decision Support with Monterey Phoenix
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Authors
Giammarco, Kristin
Subjects
MP
Monterey Phoenix
MPVIP
Monterey Phoenix Virtual Internship Program
USMA
United States Military Academy
Aquaticus
SAR
search and rescue
emergent behavior analysis
Monterey Phoenix
MPVIP
Monterey Phoenix Virtual Internship Program
USMA
United States Military Academy
Aquaticus
SAR
search and rescue
emergent behavior analysis
Advisors
Date of Issue
2022-12-31
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
The number of possibilities that can arise from complex system behaviors and interactions is regularly underestimated by approaches and tools that are biased towards the capture of known and wanted behaviors. This research tests a new methodology for exposing and controlling unknown and unwanted behaviors using Monterey Phoenix (MP) models, and then assesses risk of events and event traces as an example analysis that informs acquisition decisions. A summer internship activity was conducted to guide the development of source data for this research in the form of MP behavior models of search and rescue (SAR) operations in support of a competition known as Aquaticus. The new emergent behavior analysis methodology is applied to provide a set of validated scenarios to inform the risk analysis. In the initial minimally-constrained model, two event traces showing a total of three unexpected game rule violations were found and corrected. A total of eight traces were generated in the final, well-constrained model, each of which represents one valid potential behavior possibility for the blue team, red team, and environment for the events that were modeled. Risk factors were then computed for each trace to inform overall risk statistics across the entire model, including a total risk (sum of all trace risk factors) and a maximum risk. An average risk was also computed across all eight traces. This methodology provides the first rigorous and systematic search pattern for ‘unknown unknown’ behaviors supported by automated tools. It increases awareness and understanding of emergent behaviors within and among systems and the environment.
Type
Report
Description
NPS NRP Executive Summary
Series/Report No
Department
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
HQMC Information (DCI)
Funder
This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrp
Chief of Naval Operations (CNO)
Chief of Naval Operations (CNO)
Format
4 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.