IRAN'S INFLUENCE IN SYRIA AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS FOR JORDAN'S NATIONAL SECURITY

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Authors
Mohammad, Mohammad A.
Subjects
Islamic Revolution
Iran
Jordan
foreign policy
opportunity
sectarianism
Syria
Iraq
Hezbollah
ideology
mobilization
militia
United States
Russia
Saudi Arabia
variables
radical shift
Sunni
Shiite
Arab Spring
interference
intervention
hard power
soft power
influence
approach
scenario
targeting
national security
Advisors
Hafez, Mohammed M.
Date of Issue
2023-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Jordanian–Iranian relations have experienced a long history of political and ideological disputes. Intervention in Syria is the pivotal variable that grants Iran a strategic opportunity to target Jordan. This study assesses Iran’s growing influence in Syria and potential threats to Jordanian national security. This thesis finds that, during Syrian civil war, Iran has established significant hard power through a network of militias and proxies; simultaneously, it has created long-term soft power by politically, economically, socially, and religiously influencing governmental institutions and Syrian society. This influence enables Iran to target Jordan’s security, political, and economic domains. Iran could employ proxies and drones to target the Jordanian borders, enabling the flow of infiltrators and the smuggling of weapons, explosives, and drugs into Jordan to establish a status of instability. At political and economic dimensions, Iran could significantly obstruct a political solution to the Syrian crisis and Jordanian–Syrian rapprochement. This obstruction is a pressing factor on Jordan due to its concerns about the presence of Iranian-backed militias in southern Syria and the failure to resolve the Syrian refugee crisis. In cooperation with its allies, Jordan should pursue a diplomatic approach and implement several military and economic measures to counter potential Iranian threats.
Type
Thesis
Description
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Department
National Security Affairs (NSA)
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Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
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