POST–FIRST TERM ENLISTMENT RETENTION ANALYSIS FOR THE SELECTED MARINE CORPS RESERVE

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18Jun_Mcfarland_Waverly.pdf (1.41 MB)
Authors
Mcfarland, Waverly C. Jr.
Subjects
attrition
retention
Marine Corps
logistic regression
forecasting
prediction
Reserve
Advisors
Anglemyer, Andrew T.
Date of Issue
2018-06
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
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Abstract
This study concerning retention of Marines serving in SelRes (Selected Reserve) units is conducted at the request of the Retention Analysis Division, Manpower & Reserve Affairs, Headquarters Marine Corps. Through developing career milestone-based logistic regression models aimed at predicting the likelihood of an individual Marine being retained, we can identify significant factors that lead to continued service. Significant predictor variables common to each of the logistic regression models for the career milestones include total years credited toward retirement and age. These more senior individuals have likely made a career decision in continuing their military service, which explains the consistently positive effect on retention. Marines with prior active duty service, which often correlates to an increase in age and total years credited toward retirement, exhibit significantly better retention than their counterparts for the latter milestones. Deployment experience shows a consistently positive effect on retention across milestones. This suggests that Marines serving in SelRes units view deployment opportunities as favorable, and even upon completion of only single deployment, they are much more likely to continue their military service. This study validated previous research concerning similar subject matter and provides a means to forecast retention for up to 12 years in the future.
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Thesis
Description
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/10945/59718
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Department
Operations Research (OR)
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RA Division M&RA HQMC
HQMC M&RA
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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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