Attrition Modelling
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Authors
Taylor, James G.
Subjects
Advisors
Date of Issue
1979
Date
Publisher
Language
Abstract
This paper surveys current approaches used in the United States for assessing casualties in simulated tactical engagements between general-purpose military forces inconventional air-ground operations. It first discusses the various modelling alternatives available to the military OP worker and then expounds upon both detailed Lanchester-type models of attrition in tactical engagements and also aggregated-force models based on index numbers (e.g. firepower scores). Methodological aspects are emphasized. Simple auxiliary models are used to illustrate modelling points for developing and understanding complex operational models, but examples of current operational mod- els that use these two theoretical approaches of casualty assessment are given. Concerning detailed Lanchester-type models of attrition in tactical engagements, simple auxiliary models are used to illustrate modelling concepts and issues such as (1) various functional forms for attrition rates, (2) determining numerical values for attrition-rate coefficients, (3) various operational factors to be considered in attrition models. Index-number methods for aggregating military capabilities and aggregated-force models of attrition are then discussed, and a Lanchester-type aggregated-force attrition model is developed.
Type
Article
Description
Reprinted with the publisher's permission from pp. 139-189 of Operationsanalytische Spiele für die Verteidigung, R. K. Huber, K. Niemeyer, and H. W. Hofmann (Editors), Oldenbourg, München, 1979.
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research (OR)
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
US Army Research Office
Code 431 (Naval Analysis Programs), Office of Naval Research, U.S. Navy.
Code 431 (Naval Analysis Programs), Office of Naval Research, U.S. Navy.
Funder
ARO MIPR 22-7
R&D Project No. 1L161102H57-05 Math
Code 431 (Naval Analysis Programs), Office of Naval Research
Foundation Research Program at the Naval Postgraduate School)
R&D Project No. 1L161102H57-05 Math
Code 431 (Naval Analysis Programs), Office of Naval Research
Foundation Research Program at the Naval Postgraduate School)
Format
54 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.