A systems approach to modeling drivers of conflict and convergence in the Asia-Pacific region in the next 5-25 years

Abstract

This project is part of a Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) for the U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM). This SMA provides planning support for complex operational imperatives requiring multi-agency, multi-disciplinary solutions that are not currently within core PACOM competencies. The Naval Postgraduate School’s (NPS) contribution overcomes the current conceptualization limitations by using a Systems Dynamics (SD) viewpoint to examine U.S.–China relations. This approach employs systems thinking and systems dynamics methodologies to analyze the policy structures of major issues of concern common to U.S. and China which result in non-linear and dynamic behavior over time. The SD model developed is composed of four sectors of common concern: energy demand and resources, demographics and stability, economics, and military actions. These sector models are used to model tension between the U.S. and China over the next 25 years. Tension was chosen as an underlying surrogate to overall U.S.–China relations. A simulation tool was developed assist policy makers in better understanding how the system's variables are related, how they influence one another, and how they are influenced by the system's external environment. The simulation tool also supports decision / policy making by allowing analysts to explore the effects of these variables on potential futures.