Data-Driven Enlisted Retention Decision Making
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Authors
Koyak, Robert
Subjects
manpower
retention
reenlistment bonuses
menu of contracts
statistical modeling
retention
reenlistment bonuses
menu of contracts
statistical modeling
Advisors
Date of Issue
2023-11-17
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
In Talent Management 2030, the Commandant outlines his plan to recalibrate enlisted personnel management in the Marine Corps from one of “recruit and replace” to an “invest and retain” model. Central to this strategy is the offering of bonuses of various kinds to encourage the reenlistment of First Term Alignment Plan (FTAP) Marines, including a Selected Reenlistment Bonus (SRB) that differentially targets occupational specialties and pay grades. Using USMC manpower data covering fiscal years 2015 to 2020, we examine the extent to which the amounts of bonuses offered increase the likelihood that a “high quality” first-term Marine will reenlist. Although evidence of a positive effect is found by examining a cohort of first-term Marines who score highly on two components of the tier score, which is an established quality metric used by the Marine Corps, attributing effects to the offering of bonuses is challenging due to the existence of confounding factors that preclude drawing causal inferences. Separate examination of three infantry specialties (Rifleman, Machine Gunner, and Mortarman) does not produce conclusive evidence that FTAP reenlistment rates respond positively to the amounts of bonuses offered, which suggests that the effect of offering reenlistment bonuses varies across all specialties. A “menu of contracts” approach is considered as an alternative to the SRB for encouraging high-quality FTAP Marines to reenlist. A Marine would select a contract from a set of options, with bonuses differentiated in a manner that enables the Marine Corps to approve contracts that align with the quality of the applicant. Obstacles to implementation of an effective menu of contracts approach are the lack of a suitable quality-revelation event and heterogeneity of the FTAP population within specialties and paygrades.
Type
Report
Description
NPS NRP Executive Summary
Series/Report No
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
HQMC Manpower and Reserve Affairs (M&RA)
Funding
This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrp
Chief of Naval Operations (CNO)
Chief of Naval Operations (CNO)
Format
4 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.