PREDICTING INDIVIDUAL USNR ENLISTED ATTRITION
Loading...
Authors
Rand, Bria N.
Subjects
reserve
manning
manpower
manning
manpower
Advisors
Buttrey, Samuel E.
Date of Issue
2022-09
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
U.S. Navy Reserve sailors are trained to conduct critical operational missions and support the Active-Duty component. They also manage the administration and training of the Reserve program. Despite the importance of these personnel, in many recent years end-strength levels have not been met. This problem has arisen because the current end strength model has not accurately predicted these shortfalls. The variability in the accuracy of the attrition prediction input, a four-year weighted average, presents the difficulty of predicting Reserve attrition. While this thesis does not aim to replace the current aggregate model, it does aim to forecast individual attrition by using medical, administrative, and demographic factors to fit binary logistic regression models that predict whether a service member will attrit in the following year. This study differs from other individual attrition models in that they focus solely on first-term and early attrition that directly impacts recruiting. The results show that improvements to the model are required to increase accuracy. Inclusion of medical variables, as seen in prior theses, and inclusion of Navy Reserve specific variables may be beneficial to identify a subset of variables that can improve the model’s predictive power.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research (OR)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.