When Is Model Complexity Too Much? Illustrating the Benefits of Simple Models With Hughes’ Salvo Equations
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Authors
Lucas, Thomas W.
McGunnigle, John E.
Subjects
Advisors
Date of Issue
2003
Date
2003
Publisher
Wiley
Language
Abstract
The simulations that many defense analysts rely upon in their studies continue to grow in size and complexity. This paper contrasts the guidance that the authors have received— from some of the giants of military operations research—with the current practice. In particular, the analytic utility of Hughes’ simple salvo equations is compared with that of the complex Joint Warfighting System (JWARS), with respect to JWARS’ key performance parameters. The comparison suggests that a family of analytic tools supports the best analyses. It follows that smaller, more agile, and transparent models, such as Hughes’ salvo equations, are underutilized in defense analyses. We believe that these models should receive more attention, use, and funding. To illustrate this point, this paper uses two very simple models (by modern standards) to rapidly generate insights on the value of information relative to force strength.
Type
Article
Description
The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.10062
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research (OR)
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Format
21 p.
Citation
Lucas, Thomas W., and John E. McGunnigle. "When is model complexity too much? Illustrating the benefits of simple models with Hughes' salvo equations." Naval Research Logistics (NRL) 50.3 (2003): 197-217.
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.