Russian decision-making and options regarding US National Missile Defense
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Authors
Wright, Eric K.
Subjects
Advisors
Yost, David S.
Tsypkin, Mikhail
Date of Issue
2000-03
Date
March, 2000
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
This thesis analyzes Russian policy regarding prospective U.S. decisions on the deployment of a limited National Missile Defense (NMD) system. Russia's critical position on U.S. NMD is a product of its security concerns, desire for national prestige, and sense of pragmatism. Russia's responses to date-attempts to influence international opinion and the policies of foreign governments against U.S. NMD-reflect these concerns and the limits of Russia's economic and military power. Russia's apparent strategy is threefold: to engage in sharp rhetoric with the United States about NMD, while not crossing the line of an embarrassing showdown
to capitalize on America's unwillingness to assert its predominance in world affairs
and to persuade the West to subsidize the Russian economy in order to allay its own fears of instability in Russia. Russia's options are to accept the ABM Treaty modifications requested by the United States and thereby legitimize U.S. NMD under the treaty or to refuse such modifications, in which case Washington may exercise its legal option to withdraw from the treaty. In either case, Russia will seek to charge America a high political price for pursuing NMD. Russia's nuclear arsenal and potential for political upheaval suggest that it is in the U.S. interest to promote stability in Russia, while considering how to redefine its strategic nuclear relationship with Russia.
to capitalize on America's unwillingness to assert its predominance in world affairs
and to persuade the West to subsidize the Russian economy in order to allay its own fears of instability in Russia. Russia's options are to accept the ABM Treaty modifications requested by the United States and thereby legitimize U.S. NMD under the treaty or to refuse such modifications, in which case Washington may exercise its legal option to withdraw from the treaty. In either case, Russia will seek to charge America a high political price for pursuing NMD. Russia's nuclear arsenal and potential for political upheaval suggest that it is in the U.S. interest to promote stability in Russia, while considering how to redefine its strategic nuclear relationship with Russia.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
National Security Affairs
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
xix, 72 p.
28 cm.
28 cm.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.