Cultural Modeling Support to Pakistan-Afghanistan (PAKAF) Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA)

Abstract

The U.S. Army TRADOC Analysis Center (TRAC) in Monterey implemented a prototype agent-based modeling capability to analyze population stances and behaviors. The analysis focused on three issues for six Helmand Province districts in Afghanistan: Kajaki, Sangin, Gereshk, Lashkar Gah, Nawa, and Garmsir. The three issues under study were population stances on security, infrastructure, and governance. The research utilized a multi-faceted approach to analysis of operations in Helmand Province based on district, political affiliation, family status, tribal affiliation, urban/rural disposition, and age. The approach enables analysis to identify which population groups are most significantly impacted due to events and behaviors, such as the amount of ISAF non-kinetic operations. Similarly, it enables identification of which actions, such as kinetic actions by either ISAF or insurgents, would result in negative impacts to security stances for all modeled population groups. The modeling approach uniquely utilizes many population attributes, providing a rich and contextual examination of the operational environment. (Findings are not to be construed as an official Department of the Army (DA) position unless so designated by other authorized documents.)