Validation of rational deterrence theory : analysis of U.S. government and adversary risk propensity and relative emphasis on gain or loss
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Authors
Taquechel, Eric F.
Subjects
Advisors
Morag, Nadav
Strindberg, Anders
Date of Issue
2010-03
Date
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
This thesis develops a rational deterrence case study risk elicitation framework to assess the risk propensity and relative emphasis on loss/gain of the U.S. and various adversaries involved in historical and current deterrence games. This framework is used to elicit qualitative historical information that supports a notional Deterrence Efficacy Model. This qualitative approach is further supported by a basic game-theoretic approach predicting the efficacy of deterrence given certain actor risk profiles. Recommendations as to the efficacy of deterrence for current U.S. national security threats are offered using the proposed Deterrence Efficacy Model, quantitative framework, and supporting methodology.
Type
Thesis
Description
CHDS State/Local
Series/Report No
Department
Security Studies
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
xii, 179 p. ;
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
Copyright is reserved by the copyright owner.