RUSSIA AND EUROPE’S ENERGY DEPENDENCE: STRATEGIC RISK FACTORS THAT AFFECT EUROPEAN COHESION AND THE TRANS-ATLANTIC RELATIONSHIP
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Authors
Lee, Kevin E.
Hitzner, Michael
Pearsall, Gilbert H., III
Subjects
Russia
natural gas
Germany
Estonia
energy
policy
dependence
system dynamics
advanced modeling
natural gas
Germany
Estonia
energy
policy
dependence
system dynamics
advanced modeling
Advisors
Porter, Wayne
Date of Issue
2019-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Conventional thinking would suggest that Russia is positioning its vast energy resources to economically influence and undermine European cohesion and its trans-Atlantic relationship. However, Russia remains heavily dependent on the sale and export of its energy resources to Europe, and its future economic viability is tied directly to Europe’s continued use of fossil fuels as opposed to its desired transition to green energy. This thesis is exploratory research utilizing system dynamics modeling to identify various risk factors that affect Russia and Europe's energy relationship and assess their potential impacts on collective security strategies. This thesis has two purposes: (1) model the dynamic energy relationships between Russia and Europe, utilizing Germany and Estonia as specifics case studies, and (2) model policy scenarios to assess their impact on Russia, Europe, and trans-Atlantic relationships. The exploratory research in this thesis will aid U.S. and NATO national security decision-makers by providing them with a combination of qualitative and quantitative insights and analysis to enhance their understanding of risk factors that affect Russia and Europe's energy relations.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Defense Analysis (DA)
Defense Analysis (DA)
Defense Analysis (DA)
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NPS Report Number
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.